Friday, March 18, 2011

CA-36 Act Blue Fundraising Stats - Hahn Leads Bowen, Support For Winograd Collapses

As of this morning,  Janice Hahn is leading, with Debra Bowen a close second, and Marcy Winograd a distant third. Here's how this breaks down:

It's important to note that Act Blue accounts for only a portion of a candidate's fundraising efforts (I've heard estimates of anywhere from 10% to 30%), but as an indicator of fundraising progress I think it's probably pretty representative of where the candidates are in relation to one another.

There's a couple of things I take away from this. First, Hahn has half the donor base of Bowen, but their pockets are far deeper. In the last 24 hours alone, 2 donors were responsible for $7,500 in donations to Hahn's campaign.

Secondly, Winograd's campaign this cycle is far different than her campaign against Harman in 2010. In that campaign, she raised nearly $90,000 from 3,182 supporters.

Winograd and her supporters may have a heavy presence on the California Progressive Caucus listserves, Twitter, and the comment sections of blogs this election cycle, but their passion has yet to translate into real world results.

Meanwhile, up to 19 candidates have filed so far for the CA-36 race, including our first Tea Party candidate, Republican Craig Huey, who announced his candidacy at a dinner meeting of the the South Bay Open Carry movement.

The number of candidates pretty much guarantees no one candidate will succeed in winning the May 17th election outright. Under the new "top two" primary election rules, if no candidate receives 50%+1 of the votes, the top two voter-getters will advance to a July 12th election. If the Act Blue numbers are any indication, it's looking more and more likely that those candidates with be Debra Bowen and Janice Hahn.

No comments:

Post a Comment